← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 12:05 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Framber Valdez (ERA 4.1, WHIP 1.32) · home: David Peterson (ERA 6.45, WHIP 1.64)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Portfolio | $19.54 | 1.93 | $18.17 | +8% | +18.17 | won |
leg 1: Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.39 | $8.77 | +27% | -2.00 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +5% | +7.63 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 52% | 1.93 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 48% | 2.05 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 2.01 | 1.97 | -2.0% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.70 | 1.87 | +9.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Chicago Cubs | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — | 11 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1535.39 | 1502.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.72 | 3.31 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |