← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Chase Burns (ERA 2.54, WHIP 1.11) · home: Luis Castillo (ERA 4.93, WHIP 1.37)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.39 | $8.77 | +27% | -2.00 | lost |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 51% | 2.34 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 49% | 2.01 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 1.90 | 1.62 | -14.5% | |
| Seattle Mariners win | 1.81 | 2.34 | +29.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Seattle Mariners | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1520.68 | 1467.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.45 | -5.83 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.80 |