⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Arizona Diamondbacks 6–5 Oakland Athletics

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 01:40 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Jack Perkins (ERA 6.87, WHIP 1.44)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost
leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won
leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won
Chaos parlay$2.005.39$8.77+27%-2.00lost
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70
Elo value MLB$10.001.70$7.03+10%+7.03won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Arizona Diamondbacks win57%1.73
Oakland Athletics win43%5.56

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Oakland Athletics win2.055.56+171.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks win1.621.18-27.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

12345678910Total
Oakland Athletics00100001215
Arizona Diamondbacks30000010026

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricArizona DiamondbacksOakland Athletics
congestion 21d12.0012.00
elo1507.971443.73
elo momentum (last 5)1.70-4.41
matches since win1.000.00
rest days1.001.00
runs against avg (last 10)3.907.80
runs for avg (last 10)5.303.60