← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jack Perkins (ERA 6.87, WHIP 1.44)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost leg 2: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.39 | $8.77 | +27% | -2.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +10% | +7.03 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 57% | 1.73 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 43% | 5.56 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.05 | 5.56 | +171.0% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.62 | 1.18 | -27.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | Oakland Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1507.97 | 1443.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.70 | -4.41 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 7.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.60 |