Cleveland Guardians 1–7 Pittsburgh Pirates

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 19, 05:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Paul Skenes (ERA 3.57, WHIP 1.02) · home: Joey Cantillo (ERA 3.56, WHIP 1.4)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01	Portfolio	$17.00	2.01	$17.17	+7%	-17.00	lost
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 lost leg 2: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	7.10	$12.19	+64%	-2.00	lost
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.01	$10.10	+18%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Pittsburgh Pirates win	54%	1.83
Cleveland Guardians win	46%	31.21

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Pittsburgh Pirates win		1.40	1.80	+28.4%
Cleveland Guardians win		1.73	2.09	+20.9%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Pittsburgh Pirates	0	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	7
Cleveland Guardians	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Cleveland Guardians	Pittsburgh Pirates
congestion 21d	13.00	13.00
elo	1524.99	1506.02
elo momentum (last 5)	7.29	12.83
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	0.77	0.77
runs against avg (last 10)	3.20	4.50
runs for avg (last 10)	4.30	6.80