Philadelphia Phillies 1–6 New York Mets

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 19, 05:35 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Nolan McLean (ERA 3.52, WHIP 1.12) · home: Alan Rangel (ERA 4.19, WHIP 1.4)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83	Portfolio	$22.30	1.83	$18.44	+7%	-22.30	lost
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 lost leg 2: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	7.10	$12.19	+64%	-2.00	lost
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.83	$8.27	+22%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
New York Mets win	53%	2.01
Philadelphia Phillies win	47%	31.21

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
New York Mets win		1.79	1.76	-1.8%
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.70	2.13	+25.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
New York Mets	2	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6
Philadelphia Phillies	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets
congestion 21d	13.00	13.00
elo	1547.23	1462.87
elo momentum (last 5)	-0.08	-7.00
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	0.94	0.94
runs against avg (last 10)	3.50	6.00
runs for avg (last 10)	3.80	3.50