← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 12, 08:05 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.69 | Portfolio | $15.48 | 1.69 | $10.68 | +5% | +10.68 | won |
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 won leg 2: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won leg 3: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.24 | $12.49 | +23% | -2.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.48 | +9% | +6.48 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 59% | 1.70 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 41% | 2.52 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.52 | 2.24 | -11.2% | |
| San Francisco Giants win | 1.57 | 1.67 | +6.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Francisco Giants | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1474.49 | 1389.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.72 | 1.72 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.90 |