← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 12, 08:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 won leg 2: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won leg 3: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.24 | $12.49 | +23% | -2.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.01 | $10.10 | +8% | +10.10 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 52% | 1.93 |
| San Diego Padres win | 48% | 2.09 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.90 | 1.79 | -5.4% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.93 | 2.05 | +6.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| elo | 1497.99 | 1510.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.16 | 3.30 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 7.30 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.50 |