← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 11, 10:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 won leg 2: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won leg 3: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.24 | $12.49 | +23% | -2.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.19 | $11.87 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 56% | 1.73 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 44% | 2.19 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.73 | 1.70 | -1.7% | |
| Detroit Tigers win | 2.14 | 2.16 | +1.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Detroit Tigers | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1502.47 | 1542.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.15 | -9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.40 |