wc2022-intpool-replay
← all backtests · poisson_tw · seasons 2022 · markets 1x2
68
bets placed · hit rate 33.8%
$0.94
P&L · ROI 0.1% on $1142 staked
0.00%
CLV · avg edge vs closing line
0.2043 / 0.1948
Brier model/market · close is sharper
Calibration (all scored predictions)
Calibration table
| Bin | n | Predicted | Actual |
|---|
| 0.0-0.1 | 17 | 5.7% | 11.8% |
| 0.1-0.2 | 41 | 15.4% | 19.5% |
| 0.2-0.3 | 58 | 25.2% | 36.2% |
| 0.3-0.4 | 18 | 34.5% | 22.2% |
| 0.4-0.5 | 10 | 44.8% | 10.0% |
| 0.5-0.6 | 17 | 53.7% | 47.1% |
| 0.6-0.7 | 17 | 64.8% | 58.8% |
| 0.7-0.8 | 8 | 76.0% | 62.5% |
| 0.8-0.9 | 5 | 84.8% | 80.0% |
| 0.9-1.0 | 1 | 92.0% | 100.0% |
Biggest swingsthe bets that moved this run most, either way