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wc2022-intpool-replay

← all backtests · poisson_tw · seasons 2022 · markets 1x2

68
bets placed · hit rate 33.8%
$0.94
P&L · ROI 0.1% on $1142 staked
0.00%
CLV · avg edge vs closing line
0.2043 / 0.1948
Brier model/market · close is sharper

Calibration (all scored predictions)

0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%perfectbin 0.0-0.1 · n=17 · predicted 5.7% · actual 11.8%bin 0.1-0.2 · n=41 · predicted 15.4% · actual 19.5%bin 0.2-0.3 · n=58 · predicted 25.2% · actual 36.2%bin 0.3-0.4 · n=18 · predicted 34.5% · actual 22.2%bin 0.4-0.5 · n=10 · predicted 44.8% · actual 10.0%bin 0.5-0.6 · n=17 · predicted 53.7% · actual 47.1%bin 0.6-0.7 · n=17 · predicted 64.8% · actual 58.8%bin 0.7-0.8 · n=8 · predicted 76.0% · actual 62.5%bin 0.8-0.9 · n=5 · predicted 84.8% · actual 80.0%bin 0.9-1.0 · n=1 · predicted 92.0% · actual 100.0%predicted probabilityobserved frequency

Calibration table

BinnPredictedActual
0.0-0.1175.7%11.8%
0.1-0.24115.4%19.5%
0.2-0.35825.2%36.2%
0.3-0.41834.5%22.2%
0.4-0.51044.8%10.0%
0.5-0.61753.7%47.1%
0.6-0.71764.8%58.8%
0.7-0.8876.0%62.5%
0.8-0.9584.8%80.0%
0.9-1.0192.0%100.0%

Biggest swingsthe bets that moved this run most, either way

MatchMarketPickModel %Market %StakeP&L
Germany v JapanMatch resultJapan win24.5%12.7%$20.00+130.00
Australia v DenmarkMatch resultAustralia win20.7%13.5%$18.57+111.42
Japan v SpainMatch resultJapan win24.7%14.6%$20.00+110.00
Tunisia v FranceMatch resultTunisia win23.2%16.4%$17.52+83.22
England v United StatesMatch resultDraw26.8%22.6%$9.81+31.39
Croatia v CanadaMatch resultCroatia win53.6%42.8%$20.00+25.00
Qatar v EcuadorMatch resultEcuador win52.7%43.1%$20.00+24.00
Croatia v MoroccoMatch resultCroatia win51.1%42.8%$20.00+24.00
Ecuador v SenegalMatch resultEcuador win58.9%38.9%$20.00-20.00
Netherlands v ArgentinaMatch result
Argentina win
50.0%
43.1%
$20.00
-20.00
South Korea v GhanaMatch resultSouth Korea win54.8%34.6%$20.00-20.00
Canada v MoroccoMatch resultCanada win40.6%20.0%$20.00-20.00
Argentina v FranceMatch resultArgentina win62.2%35.6%$20.00-20.00
France v DenmarkMatch resultDenmark win28.7%21.1%$20.00-20.00
Saudi Arabia v MexicoMatch resultDraw38.4%22.5%$20.00-20.00