← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Marciniak · pens 4–2
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 36% | 62% | 2.76 | value: +72% ⚠ |
| France win | 33% | 13% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 25% | 3.20 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Olivier Giroud · France |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Lionel Messi · Argentina |
| 36' | ⚽ | Ángel Di María · Argentina |
| 45' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Argentina |
| 55' | 🟨 | Adrien Rabiot · France |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 81' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 87' | 🟨 | Marcus Thuram · France |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcos Acuña · Argentina |
| 108' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · Argentina |
| 114' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes · Argentina |
| 116' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Montiel · Argentina |
| 118' | ⚽ (pen) | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Gonzalo Montiel · Argentina |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Lionel Messi · Argentina |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Dybala · Argentina |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Leandro Paredes · Argentina |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Randal Kolo Muani · France |
| 126' | 🟨 | Emiliano Martínez · Argentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Argentina | France |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1600.00 | 3822.00 |
| congestion 21d | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.86 |
| elo | 2021.37 |
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 3 |
| final home goals | 3 |
| qualified | home |
| venue | Lusail Iconic Stadium |
| 1991.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.64 | 42.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.99 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 2.50 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.74 | 27.23 |
| state index | 1.56 | 1.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |