β FIFA World Cup 2022 Β· Sun, Nov 27, 04:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Matonte
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Croatia win | 43% | 54% | 2.32 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.35 | fair |
| Canada win | 27% | 21% | 3.65 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Khalifa International Stadium |