β FIFA World Cup 2022 Β· Sun, Nov 27, 04:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Matonte
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia win | 43% | 54% | 2.32 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.35 | fair |
| Canada win | 27% | 21% | 3.65 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | β½ | Alphonso Davies Β· Canada |
| 2' | β½ | Alphonso Davies Β· Canada |
| 36' | β½ | Andrej Kramaric Β· Croatia |
| 36' | β½ | Andrej KramariΔ Β· Croatia |
| 44' | β½ | Marko Livaja Β· Croatia |
| 44' | β½ | Marko Livaja Β· Croatia |
| 52' | π¨ | Tajon Buchanan Β· Canada |
| 52' | π¨ | Tajon Buchanan Β· Canada |
| 56' | π¨ | Dejan Lovren Β· Croatia |
| 56' | π¨ | Dejan Lovren Β· Croatia |
| 70' | β½ | Andrej Kramaric Β· Croatia |
| 70' | β½ | Andrej KramariΔ Β· Croatia |
| 85' | π¨ | Kamal Miller Β· Canada |
| 85' | π¨ | Luka Modric Β· Croatia |
| 85' | π¨ | Luka Modric Β· Croatia |
| 85' | π¨ | Kamal Miller Β· Canada |
| 90'+4' | β½ | Lovro Majer Β· Croatia |
| 90' | β½ | Lovro Majer Β· Croatia |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Croatia | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | β |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | β |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | β |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | β |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1883.00 | 1791.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | β |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Khalifa International Stadium |
| 3.20 |
| β |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | β |
| elo | 1837.10 | 1759.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.11 | -9.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | β |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | β |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | β |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | β |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | β |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | β |
| rest days | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | β |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | β |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.88 | β |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | β |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | β |
| squad age | 29.16 | 27.92 |
| state index | 1.39 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | β |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | β |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | β |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | β |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |