← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Wed, Nov 30, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico win | 60% | 35% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 38% | 4.40 | value: +69% ⚠ |
| Saudi Arabia win | 17% | 27% | 5.75 | value: +55% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez · Mexico |
| 16' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez · Mexico |
| 28' | 🟨 | Saleh Al-Shehri · Saudi Arabia |
| 28' | 🟨 | Saleh Al-Shehri · Saudi Arabia |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ali Al-Hassan · Saudi Arabia |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ali Al-Hassan · Saudi Arabia |
| 47' | ⚽ | Henry Martín · Mexico |
| 47' | ⚽ | Henry Martín · Mexico |
| 52' | 🟨 | Hassan Al-Tambakti · Saudi Arabia |
| 52' | ⚽ | Luis Chávez · Mexico |
| 52' | 🟨 | Hassan Altambakti · Saudi Arabia |
| 52' | ⚽ | Luis Chávez · Mexico |
| 81' | 🟨 | Abdullah Madu · Saudi Arabia |
| 81' | 🟨 | Abdullah Madu · Saudi Arabia |
| 90'+1' | 🟨 | Abdulelah Al-Amri · Saudi Arabia |
| 90'+5' | ⚽ | Salem Al-Dawsari · Saudi Arabia |
| 90'+7' | 🟨 | Hatan Bahbri · Saudi Arabia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hattan Bahebri · Saudi Arabia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Abdulelah Al-Amri · Saudi Arabia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Salem Al-Dawsari · Saudi Arabia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Saudi Arabia | Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1248.00 | 1429.00 |
| congestion 21d | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Lusail Iconic Stadium |
| 4.80 |
| 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| elo | 1680.14 | 1788.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.97 | -8.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.26 | 29.66 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |