← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Fri, Dec 9, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu · pens 3–4
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 43% | 50% | 2.32 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
| Netherlands win | 26% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Steven Bergwijn · Netherlands |
| -5' | 🟨 | Wout Weghorst · Netherlands |
| 35' | ⚽ | Nahuel Molina · Argentina |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jurriën Timber · Netherlands |
| 43' | 🟨 | Marcos Acuña · Argentina |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Argentina |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Lionel Messi · Argentina |
| 76' | 🟨 | Memphis Depay · Netherlands |
| 76' | 🟨 | Lisandro Martínez · Argentina |
| 83' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Netherlands |
| 88' | 🟨 | Steven Berghuis · Netherlands |
| 89' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes · Argentina |
| 90' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · Netherlands |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Argentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lionel Messi · Argentina |
| 109' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Montiel · Argentina |
| 112' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · Argentina |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Lautaro Martínez · Argentina |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Lionel Messi · Argentina |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Leandro Paredes · Argentina |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Teun Koopmeiners · Netherlands |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Wout Weghorst · Netherlands |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Gonzalo Montiel · Argentina |
| 120' | ⚽ (pen) | Luuk de Jong · Netherlands |
| 128' | 🟥 | Denzel Dumfries · Netherlands |
| 128' | 🟨 | Denzel Dumfries · Netherlands |
| 128' | 🟨 | Noa Lang · Netherlands |
| 128' | 🟨 | Denzel Dumfries · Netherlands |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Netherlands | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 495.00 | 1591.00 |
| congestion 21d | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| elo | 1962.12 | 2008.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.33 |
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 2 |
| final home goals | 2 |
| qualified | away |
| venue | Lusail Iconic Stadium |
| 24.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | — |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 2.25 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | 1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.36 | 27.45 |
| state index | 1.49 | 1.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | 1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |