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Netherlands 2–2 Argentina

← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Fri, Dec 9, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu · pens 3–4

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Argentina win43%50%2.32value: +16%
Draw31%28%3.25fair
Netherlands win26%22%3.75fair

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Steven Bergwijn · Netherlands
-5'🟨Wout Weghorst · Netherlands
35'⚽Nahuel Molina · Argentina
35'⚽Nahuel Molina · Argentina
43'🟨Jurriën Timber · Netherlands
43'🟨Marcos Acuña · Argentina
43'🟨Jurriën Timber · Netherlands
43'🟨Marcos Acuña · Argentina
45'🟨Cristian Romero · Argentina
45'+2'🟨Wout Weghorst · Netherlands
45'🟨Cristian Romero · Argentina
73'⚽ (pen)Lionel Messi · Argentina
73'⚽ (pen)Lionel Messi · Argentina
76'🟨Lisandro Martínez · Argentina
76'🟨Memphis Depay · Netherlands
76'🟨Memphis Depay · Netherlands
76'🟨Lisandro Martínez · Argentina
83'⚽Wout Weghorst · Netherlands
83'⚽Wout Weghorst · Netherlands
88'🟨Steven Berghuis · Netherlands
88'🟨Steven Berghuis · Netherlands
89'🟨Leandro Paredes · Argentina
89'🟨Leandro Paredes · Argentina
90'🟨— · Argentina
90'+10'🟨Lionel Messi · Argentina
90'+11'⚽Wout Weghorst · Netherlands
90'+11'🟨Nicolás Otamendi · Argentina
90'+14'🟨Steven Bergwijn · Netherlands
90'⚽Wout Weghorst · Netherlands
90'🟨Nicolás Otamendi · Argentina
90'🟨Lionel Messi · Argentina
109'🟨Gonzalo Montiel · Argentina
109'🟨Gonzalo Montiel · Argentina
112'🟨Germán Pezzella · Argentina
112'🟨Germán Pezzella · Argentina
120'⚽ (pen)Lautaro Martínez · Argentina
120'⚽ (pen)Lionel Messi · Argentina
120'⚽ (pen)Leandro Paredes · Argentina
120'⚽ (pen)Teun Koopmeiners · Netherlands
120'⚽ (pen)Wout Weghorst · Netherlands
120'⚽ (pen)Gonzalo Montiel · Argentina
120'⚽ (pen)Luuk de Jong · Netherlands
128'🟥Denzel Dumfries · Netherlands
128'🟨Denzel Dumfries · Netherlands
128'🟨Noa Lang · Netherlands
128'🟨Denzel Dumfries · Netherlands
pens✅ shootoutLionel Messi · Argentina
pens✅ shootoutLeandro Paredes · Argentina
pens✅ shootoutGonzalo Montiel · Argentina
pens✅ shootoutLautaro Martínez · Argentina
pens✅ shootoutTeun Koopmeiners · Netherlands
pens✅ shootoutWout Weghorst · Netherlands
pens✅ shootoutLuuk de Jong · Netherlands

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNetherlandsArgentina
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.40
box share (last 5)0.630.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days495.001591.00
congestion 21d9.009.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.402.40
corners against avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 5 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationPENALTY_SHOOTOUT
final away goals2
final home goals2
qualifiedaway
venueLusail Iconic Stadium
4.40
2.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.80
elo1962.122008.16
elo momentum (last 5)25.3324.81
eye test v10.670.55
eye trend v1-0.540.02
first sub minute (last 10)55.8054.20
form points (last 5)13.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.10
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.83—
league points10.009.00
league rank2.004.00
matches since blank20.0018.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.6085.60
possession avg (last 5)53.0060.60
rest days0.290.29
scorer concentration0.380.33
season ppg2.502.25
skill v10.821.50
sot against avg (last 5)4.401.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.605.67
sot for avg (last 3)3.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.605.40
squad age27.3628.09
state index1.491.61
sterile dominance v10.421.29
threat rate (last 10)0.250.19
threat rate (last 3)0.170.21
threat rate (last 5)0.250.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.60