← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Sat, Nov 26, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Marciniak
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 53% | 43% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.65 | value: +3% |
| Denmark win | 20% | 29% | 5.10 | value: +47% |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Andreas Christensen · Denmark |
| 20' | 🟨 | Andreas Christensen · Denmark |
| 23' | 🟨 | Andreas Cornelius · Denmark |
| 23' | 🟨 | Andreas Cornelius · Denmark |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jules Koundé · France |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jules Koundé · France |
| 61' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 61' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 68' | ⚽ | Andreas Christensen · Denmark |
| 68' | ⚽ | Andreas Christensen · Denmark |
| 86' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 86' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | France | Denmark |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3800.00 | 847.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Stadium 974 |
| 4.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| elo | 1960.35 | 1844.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.72 | -5.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | — |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 78.25 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.83 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.53 | 27.81 |
| state index | 1.67 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |