← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Abdulrahman Al Jassim
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia win | 43% | 51% | 2.32 | value: +19% |
| Morocco win | 31% | 22% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Josko Gvardiol · Croatia |
| 7' | ⚽ | Joško Gvardiol · Croatia |
| 9' | ⚽ | Achraf Dari · Morocco |
| 9' | ⚽ | Achraf Dari · Morocco |
| 42' | ⚽ | Mislav Orsic · Croatia |
| 42' | ⚽ | Mislav Oršić · Croatia |
| 69' | 🟨 | Azzedine Ounahi · Morocco |
| 69' | 🟨 | Azzedine Ounahi · Morocco |
| 84' | 🟨 | Selim Amallah · Morocco |
| 84' | 🟨 | Selim Amallah · Morocco |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Croatia | Morocco |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1903.00 | 138.00 |
| congestion 21d | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Khalifa International Stadium |
| 4.60 |
| 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | — |
| elo | 1851.23 | 1855.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.19 | -5.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 59.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| league points | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 37.00 |
| rest days | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.75 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 29.30 | 26.98 |
| state index | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |