← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 5, 04:30 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Nolan McLean (ERA 3.78, WHIP 1.12) · home: Martín Pérez (ERA 3.27, WHIP 1.16)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 lost leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 lost leg 3: San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.52 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 13.29 | $24.58 | +43% | -2.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 52% | 1.76 |
| New York Mets win | 48% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| Atlanta Braves | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1538.53 | 1463.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.04 | -6.86 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.20 |