← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 4, 03:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Braxton Ashcraft (ERA 3.33, WHIP 1.08) · home: Zack Littell (ERA 5.29, WHIP 1.35)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 lost leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 lost leg 3: San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.52 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 13.29 | $24.58 | +43% | -2.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 55% | 1.73 |
| Washington Nationals win | 45% | 2.14 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| Washington Nationals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1480.71 | 1488.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.85 | 0.02 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 6.40 |