← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 5, 02:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Griffin Canning (ERA 7.09, WHIP 1.66) · home: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (ERA 2.67, WHIP 0.89)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 lost leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 lost leg 3: San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.52 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 13.29 | $24.58 | +43% | -2.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.52 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 3.52 | $25.24 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 73% | 1.33 |
| San Diego Padres win | 27% | 3.52 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Dodgers | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1608.76 | 1504.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.99 | -14.45 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 7.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 4.60 |