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Los Angeles Dodgers 3–0 San Diego Padres

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 5, 02:10 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Griffin Canning (ERA 7.09, WHIP 1.66) · home: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (ERA 2.67, WHIP 0.89)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 lost
leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 lost
leg 3: San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.52 lost
Chaos parlay$2.0013.29$24.58+43%-2.00lost
San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.52
Elo value MLB$10.003.52$25.24+13%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Los Angeles Dodgers win73%1.33
San Diego Padres win27%3.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
San Diego Padres0000000000
Los Angeles Dodgers00100101—3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLos Angeles DodgersSan Diego Padres
congestion 21d18.0018.00
elo1608.761504.89
elo momentum (last 5)3.99-14.45
matches since win0.007.00
rest days1.001.00
runs against avg (last 10)4.207.90
runs for avg (last 10)7.104.60