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Los Angeles Dodgers 7–5 Washington Nationals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Sep 7, 02:10 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Andrew Alvarez (ERA 3.47, WHIP 1.31) · home: Justin Wrobleski (ERA 3.65, WHIP 1.11)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 won
leg 2: Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.94 lost
leg 3: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.51 won
Chaos parlay$2.004.53$7.06+26%-2.00lost
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.51
Elo value MLB$10.001.51$5.10+6%+5.10won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Los Angeles Dodgers win62%2.70
Washington Nationals win38%2.89

across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Washington Nationals win2.731.52-44.2%
Los Angeles Dodgers win1.362.47+81.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Washington Nationals0004010005
Los Angeles Dodgers00103003—7

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLos Angeles DodgersWashington Nationals
congestion 21d17.0018.00
elo1574.211457.80
elo momentum (last 5)-4.960.33
matches since win0.003.00
rest days1.041.04
runs against avg (last 10)4.205.40
runs for avg (last 10)4.204.70