← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Sep 7, 02:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Andrew Alvarez (ERA 3.47, WHIP 1.31) · home: Justin Wrobleski (ERA 3.65, WHIP 1.11)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 won leg 2: Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.94 lost leg 3: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.51 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 4.53 | $7.06 | +26% | -2.00 | lost |
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.51 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.51 | $5.10 | +6% | +5.10 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 62% | 2.70 |
| Washington Nationals win | 38% | 2.89 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.73 | 1.52 | -44.2% | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.36 | 2.47 | +81.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Dodgers | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1574.21 | 1457.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.96 | 0.33 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.70 |