← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 6, 06:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Eduardo Rodriguez (ERA 2.59, WHIP 1.22) · home: Peter Lambert (ERA 3.66, WHIP 1.24)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 won leg 2: Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.94 lost leg 3: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.51 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 4.53 | $7.06 | +26% | -2.00 | lost |
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.94 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.94 | $9.40 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 51% | 4.51 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 49% | 2.05 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 2.01 | 1.93 | -3.9% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.67 | 1.91 | +14.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1508.38 | 1514.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.54 | -4.62 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.00 |