← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 29, 06:15 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Baltimore Orioles win in Oakland Athletics v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 lost leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.59 | $9.18 | +21% | -2.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 50% | 2.05 |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 50% | 9.41 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.97 | 2.05 | +4.1% | |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 1.70 | 1.83 | +7.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1493.93 | 1487.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.74 | -3.42 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.50 |