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Oakland Athletics 3–4 Baltimore Orioles

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 29, 01:40 AM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Baltimore Orioles win in Oakland Athletics v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won
leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 lost
leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 won
Chaos parlay$2.005.59$9.18+21%-2.00lost
Baltimore Orioles win in Oakland Athletics v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86
Elo value MLB$10.001.86$8.61+9%+8.61won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Baltimore Orioles win59%1.86
Oakland Athletics win41%14.20

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Baltimore Orioles win1.651.06-35.4%
Oakland Athletics win2.058.50+314.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

12345678910Total
Baltimore Orioles02000000024
Oakland Athletics00000011013

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOakland AthleticsBaltimore Orioles
congestion 21d18.0018.00
elo1414.041501.32
elo momentum (last 5)8.974.49
matches since win0.001.00
rest days2.021.31
runs against avg (last 10)5.604.40
runs for avg (last 10)4.504.60