← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 29, 01:40 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Baltimore Orioles win in Oakland Athletics v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 lost leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.59 | $9.18 | +21% | -2.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Oakland Athletics v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +9% | +8.61 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 59% | 1.86 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 41% | 14.20 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 1.65 | 1.06 | -35.4% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.05 | 8.50 | +314.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1414.04 | 1501.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.97 | 4.49 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.02 | 1.31 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.60 |