← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 29, 06:20 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Baltimore Orioles win in Oakland Athletics v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 lost leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.59 | $9.18 | +21% | -2.00 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.52 | $5.24 | +4% | +5.24 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 65% | 1.55 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 35% | 18.75 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.40 | 2.64 | +10.0% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.55 | 1.51 | -2.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Chicago Cubs | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | — | 17 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1549.69 | 1463.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.92 | -2.37 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.90 |