← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 18, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Foster Griffin (ERA 3.25, WHIP 1.11)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Detroit Tigers win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 lost leg 2: San Francisco Giants win in Cleveland Guardians v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.69 lost leg 3: Detroit Tigers win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 13.35 | $24.71 | +32% | -2.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in Cleveland Guardians v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.69 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.69 | $16.90 | +12% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in Cleveland Guardians v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 61% | 1.62 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 39% | 2.69 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 2.29 | 2.58 | +12.8% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.57 | 1.53 | -2.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1489.92 | 1464.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.17 | -5.65 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.21 | 2.11 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.00 |