← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 18, 10:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Detroit Tigers win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 lost leg 2: San Francisco Giants win in Cleveland Guardians v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.69 lost leg 3: Detroit Tigers win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 13.35 | $24.71 | +32% | -2.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.09 | $10.95 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 54% | 1.83 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 46% | 2.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.90 | 2.22 | +17.1% | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.83 | 1.70 | -6.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pittsburgh Pirates | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1487.89 | 1520.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.03 | -3.77 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.70 |