← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 15, 10:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Bradish (ERA 3.69, WHIP 1.34) · home: Ian Seymour (ERA 4.08, WHIP 1.13)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: New England Revolution win in Toronto FC v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.38 leg 2: Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 leg 3: Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.15 | $20.30 | +38% | — | pending |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.74 | $7.40 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 58% | 1.74 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 42% | 2.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.24 | 2.23 | -0.3% | |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.62 | 1.70 | +5.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1541.16 | 1496.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.33 | 3.94 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 4.20 |