← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 13, 07:07 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Payton Tolle (ERA 3.2, WHIP 1.1) · home: Max Scherzer (ERA 7.25, WHIP 1.53)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.45 | Portfolio | $15.54 | 2.45 | $22.53 | +8% | -15.54 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.45 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.45 | $14.50 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 59% | 1.65 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 41% | 2.81 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.52 | 1.61 | +5.6% | |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 2.29 | 2.39 | +4.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toronto Blue Jays | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1508.53 | 1550.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.44 | -16.98 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.50 |