← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 10, 11:07 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Sonny Gray (ERA 2.78, WHIP 1.15) · home: Jameson Taillon (ERA 5.96, WHIP 1.39)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.50 | Portfolio | $13.56 | 2.50 | $20.34 | +7% | +20.34 | won |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 2.46 | $7.30 | +11% | +7.30 | won |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +11% | +14.59 | won |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +11% | +14.59 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 59% | 1.67 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 41% | 2.52 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.67 | 1.60 | -4.5% | |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 2.29 | 2.40 | +4.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toronto Blue Jays | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1500.11 | 1559.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.31 | -1.40 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 7.40 |