← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 8, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Roki Sasaki (ERA 4.64, WHIP 1.3)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.54 | Portfolio | $15.35 | 2.54 | $23.64 | +9% | +23.64 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | +21% | +15.88 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | +21% | +15.88 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | +21% | +15.88 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 60% | 1.76 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 40% | 2.59 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.62 | 1.65 | +1.6% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 2.14 | 2.34 | +9.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1518.86 | 1578.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.43 | -16.78 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 2.31 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.10 |