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Arizona Diamondbacks 4–3 Los Angeles Dodgers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 8, 01:40 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Roki Sasaki (ERA 4.64, WHIP 1.3)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.54
Portfolio$15.352.54$23.64+9%+23.64won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59
Drought fade$10.002.59$15.88+21%+15.88won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59
Elo value MLB$10.002.59$15.88+21%+15.88won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59
MLB dog variance$10.002.59$15.88+21%+15.88won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Los Angeles Dodgers win60%1.76
Arizona Diamondbacks win40%2.59

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Los Angeles Dodgers win1.621.65+1.6%
Arizona Diamondbacks win2.142.34+9.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Los Angeles Dodgers0000011103
Arizona Diamondbacks0100100024

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricArizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Dodgers
congestion 21d20.0017.00
elo1518.861578.81
elo momentum (last 5)-5.43-16.78
matches since win1.006.00
rest days1.002.31
runs against avg (last 10)4.306.10
runs for avg (last 10)4.904.10