← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 07:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Brady Singer (ERA 4.56, WHIP 1.41) · home: Emerson Hancock (ERA 3.17, WHIP 1.01)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.92 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.92 | $9.20 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.92 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 1.92 | $9.20 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.92 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.92 | $9.20 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.92 | Portfolio | $28.11 | 1.92 | $25.86 | +11% | -28.11 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 55% | 1.92 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 45% | 2.59 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 1.18 | 2.32 | +97.1% | |
| Seattle Mariners win | 1.13 | 1.65 | +46.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Seattle Mariners | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| elo | 1516.94 | 1471.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.11 | 1.39 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.70 |