SD-deephistory-rederive

← all backtests · poisson_tw · seasons 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25 · markets 1x2

2887

bets placed · hit rate 30.9%

$-2524.09

P&L · ROI -6.1% on $41624 staked

0.65%

CLV · avg edge vs closing line

0.2134 / 0.2075

Brier model/market · close is sharper

Calibration (all scored predictions)

Calibration table

Bin	n	Predicted	Actual
0.0-0.1	17	8.6%	17.6%
0.1-0.2	533	16.6%	21.2%
0.2-0.3	2,890	25.9%	27.0%
0.3-0.4	1,699	34.0%	33.1%
0.4-0.5	1,006	44.8%	43.7%
0.5-0.6	592	54.3%	50.3%
0.6-0.7	157	63.9%	63.7%
0.7-0.8	23	72.7%	47.8%
0.8-0.9	1	87.4%	0.0%

Biggest swingsthe bets that moved this run most, either way

Match	Market	Pick	Model %	Market %	Stake	P&L
Girona v Xerez	Match result	Xerez win	14.4%	10.4%	$17.06	+191.92
Llagostera v Zaragoza	Match result	Llagostera win	37.3%	13.0%	$20.00	+154.20
Girona v Lugo	Match result	Draw	24.4%	14.2%	$20.00	+111.00
CA Osasuna v Huesca	Match result	Huesca win	25.0%	16.1%	$20.00	+110.80
Oviedo v Huesca	Match result	Huesca win	23.5%	14.9%	$20.00	+109.20
Mallorca v Murcia	Match result	Murcia win	28.7%	15.2%	$20.00	+109.00
Cartagena v Real Racing Club de Santander	Match result	Cartagena win	26.0%	15.3%	$20.00	+108.20
Real Madrid B v Sabadell	Match result	Sabadell win	28.0%	17.3%	$20.00	+100.00
Cordoba v Hercules	Match result	Hercules win	31.5%	18.5%	$20.00	+98.60
Sp Gijon v Ponferradina