← Segunda División 2012-13 · Fri, Sep 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid B win | 57% | 44% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.78 | value: +8% |
| Sabadell win | 17% | 28% | 5.62 | value: +57% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid B | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 441.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1440.58 | 1437.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.83 | 14.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |