← Segunda División 2013-14 · Sat, Jan 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 48% | 45% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 23% | 3.28 | fair |
| Jaen win | 22% | 32% | 4.35 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Jaen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 589.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1414.80 | 1434.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.74 | -1.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 22.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |