← Segunda División 2012-13 · Sun, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba win | 57% | 38% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.96 | value: +19% |
| Hercules win | 18% | 31% | 5.27 | value: +66% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cordoba | Hercules |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 506.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1548.56 | 1435.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.55 | -45.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 21.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 0.62 |
| state index | 0.44 | -1.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |