← Segunda División 2012-13 · Fri, Nov 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sp Gijon win | 55% | 48% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.66 | fair |
| Ponferradina win | 19% | 25% | 5.21 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sp Gijon | Ponferradina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1519.12 | 1377.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.28 | -31.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.01 | -1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |