← Premier League 2025-26 · Wed, Mar 4, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Over in Fulham v Tottenham · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73 won leg 2: Over in Fulham v West Ham · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73 lost leg 3: Under in Leeds v Sunderland · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73 won | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 5.18 | $20.89 | +15% | -5.00 | lost |
Fulham win in Fulham v West Ham · Match result @ 2.00 | Main (your slate bets) | $13.21 | 2.00 | $13.21 | +5% | -13.21 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 43% | 52% | 2.20 | value: +15% |
| West Ham win | 30% | 20% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Fulham −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 46% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 54% | 2.20 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Mateus Fernandes · West Ham |
| 41' | 🟨 | Aaron Wan-Bissaka · West Ham |
| 65' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonee Robinson · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Calvin Bassey · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mohamadou Kanté · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days |
| 1707.00 |
| 246.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1684.52 | 1597.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.08 | 14.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| league points | 40.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 3.23 | 4.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.57 | 26.12 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 17.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 1.68 |