← Premier League 2025-26 · Tue, Mar 3, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Over in Fulham v Tottenham · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73 won leg 2: Over in Fulham v West Ham · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73 lost leg 3: Under in Leeds v Sunderland · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73 won | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 5.18 | $20.89 | +15% | -5.00 | lost |
Sunderland win in Leeds v Sunderland · Match result @ 4.33 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.00 | 4.33 | $66.60 | +48% | +66.60 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 52% | 49% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +4% |
| Sunderland win | 21% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds −0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Sunderland −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 45% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 55% | 2.10 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Luke O'Nien · Sunderland |
| 58' | 🟨 | Habib Diarra · Sunderland |
| 63' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Sunderland |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Habib Diarra · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wilfried Gnonto · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days |
| 976.00 |
| 610.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1686.23 | 1585.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.83 | -2.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.60 |
| league points | 31.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 3.08 | 3.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -0.30 |
| solidity v1 | -1.13 | 0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.61 | 24.85 |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 126.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.02 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.06 |