← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Over in Fulham v Tottenham · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73 won leg 2: Over in Fulham v West Ham · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73 lost leg 3: Under in Leeds v Sunderland · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73 won | Main (your slate bets) | $5.00 | 5.18 | $20.89 | +15% | -5.00 | lost |
Over in Fulham v Tottenham · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.00 | 1.73 | $14.60 | +9% | +14.60 | won |
Tottenham win in Fulham v Tottenham · Match result @ 3.30 | Main (your slate bets) | $12.27 | 3.30 | $28.22 | +11% | -12.27 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 46% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 27% | 32% | 3.50 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham −0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Fulham −0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 52% | 1.67 |
| 7' | ⚽ | Harry Wilson · Fulham |
| 34' | ⚽ | Alex Iwobi · Fulham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Issa Diop · Fulham |
| 64' | 🟨 | Micky van de Ven · Tottenham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Calvin Bassey · Fulham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 66' | ⚽ | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Cairney · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Porro · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| fair |
| Under | 43% | 48% | 2.20 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| coach days |
| 1704.00 |
| 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1675.71 | 1694.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.92 | -9.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 45.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| league points | 37.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | -0.51 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.55 | 25.79 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 17.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.08 |