← Major League Baseball 2026 · playoffs · Wed, Sep 30, 12:00 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Payton Tolle (ERA 3.03, WHIP 1.1) · home: Cam Schlittler (ERA 1.95, WHIP 0.92)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.77 | $7.70 | +2% | +7.70 | won |
Boston Red Sox win in New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 58% | 1.77 |
| Boston Red Sox win | 42% | 7.85 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 2.34 | 7.85 | +235.1% | |
| New York Yankees win | 1.62 | 1.11 | -31.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| New York Yankees | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | — | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| elo | 1565.28 | 1540.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.57 | -0.32 |