← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 9, 01:40 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.62 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.62 | $16.20 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 1.62 | $3.11 | -2% | +3.11 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 59% | 1.70 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 41% | 3.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.58 | 1.36 | -14.0% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.14 | 3.29 | +53.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1419.55 | 1520.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.22 | 3.24 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.60 |