← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 3, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jake Bennett (ERA 3.27, WHIP 1.04) · home: Brandon Young (ERA 3.38, WHIP 1.34)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 54% | 1.83 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 46% | 2.20 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.73 | 1.76 | +1.7% | |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 1.93 | 2.10 | +8.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1503.70 | 1545.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.67 | -18.49 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.17 | 1.13 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.80 |