← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Sep 3, 02:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (ERA 2.56, WHIP 0.89)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.78 | +6% | +21.78 | won |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.05 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 3.05 | $20.50 | +1% | +20.50 | won |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.98 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.98 | $19.83 | -1% | +19.83 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 67% | 1.80 |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 33% | 18.75 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 2.89 | 3.25 | +12.3% | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.42 | 1.68 | +18.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Dodgers | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1573.77 | 1492.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.33 | 4.99 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 7.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.10 |