← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Sep 2, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Dylan Cease (ERA 2.33, WHIP 1.05) · home: Joey Cantillo (ERA 3.7, WHIP 1.45)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | Portfolio | $14.58 | 2.21 | $17.64 | +9% | -14.58 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.21 | $12.10 | +19% | -10.00 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.51 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 50% | 2.05 |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 50% | 2.21 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.86 | 1.76 | -5.3% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.73 | 2.12 | +22.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1508.91 | 1510.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.92 | -1.26 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.60 |