← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 1, 01:40 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Texas Rangers v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.97 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.07 won leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.08 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 12.79 | $23.58 | +19% | -2.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.08 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.08 | $10.80 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 56% | 1.93 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 44% | 8.00 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.86 | 1.19 | -35.9% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.84 | 5.50 | +198.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1519.10 | 1557.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.93 | 7.19 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.98 | 1.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.20 |