← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 31, 10:45 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Oakland Athletics win in Texas Rangers v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.97 lost leg 2: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.07 won leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.08 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 12.79 | $23.58 | +19% | -2.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.07 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.07 | $10.70 | +5% | +10.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 51% | 1.93 |
| Washington Nationals win | 49% | 2.07 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 1.86 | 1.85 | -0.6% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 1.93 | 1.97 | +2.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1457.47 | 1493.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.64 | -2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.27 | 1.27 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.50 |