Los Angeles Angels 10–1 New York Yankees

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Sep 1, 01:38 AM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
New York Yankees win in Los Angeles Angels v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73	Portfolio	$13.06	1.73	$9.53	+5%	-13.06	lost
New York Yankees win in Los Angeles Angels v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65	Drought fade	$10.00	1.65	$6.48	+4%	-10.00	lost
New York Yankees win in Los Angeles Angels v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.65	$6.48	+4%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
New York Yankees win	59%	1.76
Los Angeles Angels win	41%	2.46

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
New York Yankees win		1.55	1.73	+12.0%
Los Angeles Angels win		2.40	2.14	-10.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
New York Yankees	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
Los Angeles Angels	0	0	1	3	2	1	0	3	—	10

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Los Angeles Angels	New York Yankees
congestion 21d	19.00	19.00
elo	1416.17	1561.75
elo momentum (last 5)	-11.27	2.55
matches since win	7.00	0.00
rest days	1.23	1.34
runs against avg (last 10)	4.00	3.40
runs for avg (last 10)	4.30	5.70