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Oakland Athletics 7–4 Minnesota Twins

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 27, 01:05 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Connor Prielipp (ERA 5.57, WHIP 1.4) · home: J.T. Ginn (ERA 3.6, WHIP 1.23)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24
Pitcher edge$10.002.24$12.36+4%+12.36won
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24
Elo value MLB$10.002.24$12.36+4%+12.36won
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24
MLB dog variance$10.002.24$12.36+4%+12.36won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Minnesota Twins win57%1.76
Oakland Athletics win43%4.73

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Minnesota Twins win1.731.22-29.7%
Oakland Athletics win2.094.73+126.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Minnesota Twins1200010004
Oakland Athletics00020410—7

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOakland AthleticsMinnesota Twins
congestion 21d19.0018.00
elo1410.351463.58
elo momentum (last 5)2.82-8.01
matches since win0.001.00
rest days0.980.98
runs against avg (last 10)5.405.40
runs for avg (last 10)4.303.90