← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 27, 01:05 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Connor Prielipp (ERA 5.57, WHIP 1.4) · home: J.T. Ginn (ERA 3.6, WHIP 1.23)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +4% | +12.36 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +4% | +12.36 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +4% | +12.36 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 57% | 1.76 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 43% | 4.73 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.73 | 1.22 | -29.7% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.09 | 4.73 | +126.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | — | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1410.35 | 1463.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.82 | -8.01 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |