Atlanta Braves 4–3 Los Angeles Dodgers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 25, 11:15 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Tyler Glasnow (ERA 2.72, WHIP 0.83) · home: Bryce Elder (ERA 3.92, WHIP 1.23)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.36	Portfolio	$11.15	2.36	$15.16	+7%	+15.16	won
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.29	$12.88	+11%	+12.88	won
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.29	$12.88	+11%	+12.88	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	57%	1.83
Atlanta Braves win	43%	2.40

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles Dodgers win		1.76	1.65	-6.5%
Atlanta Braves win		2.07	2.29	+10.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Los Angeles Dodgers	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3
Atlanta Braves	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	—	4

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Atlanta Braves	Los Angeles Dodgers
congestion 21d	19.00	18.00
elo	1539.33	1582.16
elo momentum (last 5)	-0.90	8.16
matches since win	0.00	0.00
rest days	2.01	2.13
runs against avg (last 10)	3.70	3.80
runs for avg (last 10)	2.30	4.70