← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 15, 02:15 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Freeland (ERA 6.63, WHIP 1.5) · home: Landen Roupp (ERA 4.22, WHIP 1.29)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +14% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +14% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Portfolio | $21.73 | 1.73 | $15.92 | +5% | -21.73 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 50% | 46.79 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 50% | 2.63 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.05 | 2.32 | +13.1% | |
| San Francisco Giants win | 1.73 | 1.73 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Francisco Giants | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1472.06 | 1390.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.53 | 6.49 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.27 | 2.27 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.70 |