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San Francisco Giants 2–5 Colorado Rockies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 15, 02:15 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Freeland (ERA 6.63, WHIP 1.5) · home: Landen Roupp (ERA 4.22, WHIP 1.29)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70
Pitcher edge$10.001.70$7.03+14%-10.00lost
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70
Elo value MLB$10.001.70$7.03+14%-10.00lost
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73
Portfolio$21.731.73$15.92+5%-21.73lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
San Francisco Giants win50%46.79
Colorado Rockies win50%2.63

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Colorado Rockies win2.052.32+13.1%
San Francisco Giants win1.731.730.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Colorado Rockies0001120015
San Francisco Giants0001000012

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSan Francisco GiantsColorado Rockies
congestion 21d19.0016.00
elo1472.061390.69
elo momentum (last 5)-9.536.49
matches since win1.000.00
rest days2.272.27
runs against avg (last 10)3.905.80
runs for avg (last 10)2.704.70