← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 13, 05:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Logan Gilbert (ERA 3.42, WHIP 1) · home: Max Fried (ERA 2.88, WHIP 0.97)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Portfolio | $16.75 | 1.73 | $12.23 | +4% | -16.75 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 55% | 3.18 |
| Seattle Mariners win | 45% | 2.24 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 2.09 | 2.21 | +5.7% | |
| New York Yankees win | 1.70 | 1.69 | -0.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1554.57 | 1483.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.90 | -12.95 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.50 |